Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Apr 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/1634Z from Region 2327 (S08W90). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 338 km/s at 28/2204Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/1316Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1843Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Apr, 01 May) and quiet levels on day three (02 May).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Apr 104
  Predicted   30 Apr-02 May 095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        29 Apr 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Apr  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  007/010-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm25%25%20%

All times in UTC

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