Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 March 2015

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 15 2305 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/0940Z from Region 2297 (S18W36). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 352 km/s at 15/0448Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 15/1727Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1426Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 15/0930Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (18 Mar). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (16 Mar), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (17 Mar) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (18 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Class M 70%70%70%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton30%35%40%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Mar 114
  Predicted    16 Mar-18 Mar 115/112/110
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 139

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  010/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  008/008-012/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%40%
Minor storm 05%10%20%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm 25%30%25%
Major-severe storm 20%40%60%

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