Viewing archive of Friday, 6 March 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Mar 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
06/0457Z from Region 2297 (S17E81). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar,
09 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
527 km/s at 06/1939Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/1931Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 06/1937Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 753 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Mar), quiet to active
levels on day two (08 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three
(09 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 127 Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 007/008-009/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 40% | 45% |
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