Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 November 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/2221Z from Region 2217 (S19E53). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov,
28 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 432 km/s at
25/0730Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2158Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/0721Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 463 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Nov, 27 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (28 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (26 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 169 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 162/155/145 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 008/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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