Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 November 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Nov 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
16/1748Z from Region 2209 (S15E31). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18
Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 706 km/s at 16/0556Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2100Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0042Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3557
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (18 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (19 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 172 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 165/170/170 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 019/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 014/018-011/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 25% |
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