Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 September 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
23/2316Z from Region 2172 (S11E36). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep,
27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 474 km/s at 24/2014Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/1803Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/1827Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 333
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 145 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 018/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 015/018-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 40% |
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