Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 September 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M4 event observed at
09/0029Z from Region 2158 (N15E14). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Sep, 11
Sep, 12 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
478 km/s at 09/0344Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2115Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/2033Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
08/2155Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Sep), quiet levels on
day two (11 Sep) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (12 Sep).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(10 Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Sep 159 Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 09 Sep 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 008/008-006/005-021/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 45% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 79% |
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