Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 September 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 06 2320 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
06/1709Z from Region 2157 (S14E44). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08
Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
430 km/s at 06/2049Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 06/1531Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 06/0512Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at
06/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 286 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09
Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Sep), are
likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Sep) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (09 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 157 Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 160/158/155 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 011/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 015/018-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
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