Viewing archive of Monday, 1 September 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
01/0744Z from Region 2149 (N09W77). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (02 Sep, 03
Sep) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
508 km/s at 01/0750Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/2043Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/0329Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3504 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Sep,
03 Sep, 04 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 127 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 125/125/115 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 013/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 011/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 008/008-008/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
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