Viewing archive of Monday, 28 July 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jul 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
28/1410Z from Region 2125 (S13E46). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jul,
30 Jul, 31 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
455 km/s at 28/1327Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 28/0605Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/0609Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 132 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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