Viewing archive of Monday, 7 July 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jul 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
07/0802Z from Region 2109 (S10E09). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at
07/1659Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/1946Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1740Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jul), unsettled levels
on day two (09 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jul). Protons have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08
Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 198 Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 200/200/190 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 009/010-011/012-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
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