Viewing archive of Monday, 23 June 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/1444Z from Region 2093 (S09W32). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jun,
25 Jun, 26 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 380 km/s at
22/2221Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 160 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and
quiet levels on day three (26 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 093 Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 007/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 010/015-013/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 05% |
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