Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 June 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jun 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
17/0510Z from Region 2087 (S19W22). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (18 Jun, 19 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (20 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
441 km/s at 17/2045Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 17/1958Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/0511Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (18 Jun, 19
Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 114 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 007/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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