Viewing archive of Monday, 12 May 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 May 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
12/0642Z from Region 2059 (S01W07). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
479 km/s at 12/0637Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2326Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2300Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 May) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (14 May, 15 May).
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 163 Predicted 13 May-15 May 165/170/170 90 Day Mean 12 May 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 006/007-008/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 35% | 35% |
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