Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 February 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 27/1230Z from Region 1991 (S25E52). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 519 km/s at 27/1936Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 27/1752Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 27/1810Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58 pfu at 27/1845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 245 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (02 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (28 Feb), are likely to cross threshold on day two (01 Mar) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (02 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
Class M70%70%70%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton99%70%50%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Feb 176
  Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar 175/170/170
  90 Day Mean        27 Feb 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Feb  011/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  019/025-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%05%
Minor storm25%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%15%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm55%25%05%

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