Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 February 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Feb 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
27/1230Z from Region 1991 (S25E52). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01
Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 519 km/s at 27/1936Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 27/1752Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 27/1810Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58
pfu at 27/1845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 245 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (02
Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (28 Feb), are
likely to cross threshold on day two (01 Mar) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (02 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 70% | 50% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 176 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 011/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 019/025-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 25% | 05% |
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