Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 February 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Feb 01 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Feb 2014	168	005
02 Feb 2014	170	021
03 Feb 2014	172	003

Bulletin

Numerous C- and 3 M-class flares were recorded over the last 24 hours, mostly originating from NOAA 1967. This region has three magnetic delta structures: two near the main spot, and one near the top of the region. The latter was the location of the strongest flare this period (M3 peaking at 07:23UT). One M-flare had NOAA 1968 as its source (M1 peaking at 15:42UT), which has developed more small spots of opposite polarity in its interior. This M1-flare was associated to a partial halo CME with a plane- of-sky speed of 460 km/s. The bulk of the CME was directed to the northeast. The x-ray background has been all day above the C1-level. Active conditions are expected to continue, with a chance on an X-class flare. Solar wind speed has been varying between 300 and 350 km/s and Bz fluctuating between -3 and +3 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet. For the next 24 hours, active geomagnetic conditions with a slight chance on minor storm levels are expected, in particular due to the arrival of the M6 CME (30 January) which is currently foreseen for the morning of 2 February. On 4 February, Earth may receive a glancing blow from the partial halo CME that originated in NOAA 1968 (31 January).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 31 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	003
AK Wingst	001
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	/// - Based on /// stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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