Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 October 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
29/2154Z from Region 1875 (N06W92). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
413 km/s at 30/1704Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/0843Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/0713Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
30/0925Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (01 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (02
Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on
day one (31 Oct) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day
two (01 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 142 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 019/025-013/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
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