Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 October 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Oct 02 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Major magstorm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Oct 2013	107	034
03 Oct 2013	107	007
04 Oct 2013	107	007

Bulletin

Solar activity is low, a small chance for C-class flaring can come from NOAA AR 1555/Cat 91 or from the newly emerging active regions on the East limb (Cat 93 and Cat 94). This morning from 01:00 UT onwards, the ACE spacecraft recorded a small jump in the solar wind speed, up to 600 km/s, and a gradual increase in the solar wind density. Together with Southward fluctuating IMF, this had generated a Kp=6 geomagnetic storm. The event is probably a consequence of the halo CME that left the Sun on midnight Sept 29/30, which arrived earlier than expected. By now, the IMF is back steadily Northward so we expect the worst of the storm has passed. Later today we expect a return to quiet geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 042, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania	042
10cm solar flux	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	036
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	033 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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