Viewing archive of Friday, 5 July 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jul 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
05/1301Z from Region 1787 (S15E43). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
379 km/s at 05/0354Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05/2039Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/0429Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4202 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 Jul, 07 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 141 Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 140/135/140 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 010/012-010/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 35% | 30% |
Latest news
Monday, 22 April 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
Saturday, 23 March 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Wednesday, 20 March 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Latest forum messages
AR3654 24Unspecified geomagnetic activity 954Unproven theories 342Changelog/Featurelog 154What are these long and thin eruptions? 9
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/04/27 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/04/26 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 137.7 +30.3 |