Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 June 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jun 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
30/1517Z from Region 1780 (S13W45). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Jul,
02 Jul, 03 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
601 km/s at 30/1649Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/2204Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/2158Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 934 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (01 Jul, 03
Jul) and quiet levels on day two (02 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 103 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 040/066 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 007/008-005/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 05% | 25% |
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