Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 March 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 380 km/s at 09/1730Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 707 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Mar 116
  Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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