Viewing archive of Monday, 25 February 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Feb 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 369 km/s at
25/1527Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 25/1320Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1548Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 364 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 095 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 004/005-004/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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