Viewing archive of Friday, 18 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/1707Z from Region 1654 (N07W59). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for M-class flares on day one (19 Jan). Solar activity
is likely to be low on days two and three (20 - 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
480 km/s at 18/1850Z. Total IMF reached 17.2 nT at 18/1132Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9.3 nT at 17/2351Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2057 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to remain mostly quiet until late on day one (19 Jan), when the
geomagnetic field increases to quiet to unsettled conditions with a
chance for an active period with the arrival of the 16 Jan CME.
Unsettled to active conditions with a slight chance for a minor storm
period exists early on day two (20 Jan) with the 16 Jan CME. Conditions
begin to decrease to predominately quiet to unsettled levels starting
midday on day two (20 Jan). Conditions are expected to return to
predominately quiet with a possible unsettled period on day three (21
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 115 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 009/012-015/018-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 55% | 20% |
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