Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 January 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 13/0838Z from Region 1652 (N19W28). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 511 km/s at 13/2043Z. Total IMF reached 11.1 nT at 13/1944Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8.3 nT at 13/1858Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
Class M 65%65%65%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jan 156
  Predicted    14 Jan-16 Jan 155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        13 Jan 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jan  006/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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