Viewing archive of Monday, 7 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
07/0852Z from Region 1640 (N28W87). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low
with a chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and three (08 Jan,
09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 385 km/s at
07/1934Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/0126Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.8 nT at 07/0327Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet with a chance of unsettled levels for the next three days
(08 Jan, 09
Jan, 10 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| Class M | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 150 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 006/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 006/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 15% |
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