Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 January 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Jan 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/0906Z from Region 1640 (N28W06). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 371 km/s at
31/2110Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (02 Jan, 03
Jan, 04 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 118 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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