Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 November 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/0404Z from Region 1613 (S23E18). Regions 1610 (S23W36) and 1611 (N13W14) have decayed and now have weak beta-gamma magnetic complexities. Region 1613 experienced some decay in the penumbra and is now only considered to be a simple bi-polar region. New Region 1616 (N21E61) was numbered during the period. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 14/1631Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 13/2226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19.1 nT at 14/0251Z. The increase in activity was caused by prolonged period of -Bz. A solar sector boundary crossing appears to have occurred at around 14/0245Z followed by a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 267 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov) due to continued effects from the negative polarity coronal hole followed by the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Nov 142
  Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov 145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        14 Nov 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  010/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  023/034
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  011/012-011/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm35%30%35%

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