Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. New Region 1576
(S22E62) produced a few C-class flares, the largest a C2/Sf at
19/1512Z. Both Region 1576 and 1575 (N10E62) continue to rotate
onto the disk and appear to have beta magnetic characteristics. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (20 - 22 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
satellite measurements of the solar wind observed steady velocities
at about 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field varied between +8 to -10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (20
September). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
active intervals is expected for days two and three (21 - 22
September) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 110 Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 009/010-008/012-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
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