Viewing archive of Monday, 10 September 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 10 2325 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1564 (S12W69) produced an M1 flare at 09/2236Z. Regions 1564 and
1567 (N16E14) produced occasional C-class flares. A filament
eruption was observed in SDO 304 imagery at approximately 1000Z from
the southwest quadrant. An associated CME was observed over the
south pole and had an estimated plane of sky speed of 420 km/s.
This CME is not expected to be geoeffective at this time, pending
further analysis. Newly numbered Region 1569 (S11E65) rotated onto
the disk as an A-type Hax spot group, although additional trailer
spots appeared to be rotating into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare for the next three days
(11-13 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the period.
A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at the ACE spacecraft
at about 1300Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels with a chance for unsettled levels
during the next three days (11-13 September).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 111 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 007/005-007/007-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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