Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 September 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1564 (S14E01 - Esi/beta-gamma) produced occasional C-class flares including a C6 at 05/0347Z and a C7/Sn at 05/0806Z, neither of which were associated with significant radio emission. Region 1564 showed gradual spot and penumbral decay during the period, but retained a beta-gamma configuration due to polarity mixing in the vicinity of its intermediate spots. Region 1560 (N04W58 - Eai/beta-gamma-delta) showed minor spot loss in its trailer portion during the period. It retained a delta within its intermediate spots, but the delta appeared to be dissipating. The remaining spotted region were unremarkable. No new regions were numbered. No Earth-directed CME activity occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (06 - 08 September) with a chance for an isolated M-class flare during days 1 - 2.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels with a brief period of severe storm levels at high latitudes. An interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 04/2203Z indicating the arrival of the CMEs observed on 02 September. Field activity increased to major storm levels during 05/0000 - 0300Z following the shock, then decreased to minor storm levels during 05/0300 - 0600Z. A further decrease to active levels occurred during 05/0300 - 0900Z. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred during the rest of the period with active to minor storm levels detected at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period (06 - 08 September) with a chance for active levels on day 1 due to possible weak coronal hole high-speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
Class M25%25%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Sep 133
  Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep  130/130/125
  90 Day Mean        05 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  014/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Sep  021/029
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  008/010-007/008-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%10%

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