Viewing archive of Monday, 3 September 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 1560 (N03W33 - Eki/beta-gamma-delta) and 1564 (S16E26 - Esi/beta-gamma) each produced occasional C-class flares. Region 1560 increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma-delta configuration with a delta evident in its interior spots. Region 1564 was in a gradual growth phase during the period and increased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. Region 1553 (S21W82 - Dso/beta) produced occasional optical subflares as it neared the west limb. New Region 1566 (N24E76 - Hax/alpha) was numbered. There were no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (04 - 06 September) with a chance for isolated M- class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm levels with a brief period of severe storm levels detected at high latitudes. An interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 03/1123Z indicating the arrival of the Halo CME observed on 31 August. This was followed by a geomagnetic sudden impulse at 03/1214Z (28 nT, Boulder USGS Magnetometer). Field activity increased to major storm levels during 03/1200 - 1500Z following the sudden impulse, then decreased to active levels for the rest of the period, with minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum of 60 pfu at 02/0850Z, and was in progress as the period ended.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (04 September) with a chance for minor storm levels as CME effects wind down. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during days 2 - 3 (05 - 06 September) with a chance for active levels due to arrival of Earth-directed CMEs observed on 02 September along with a co-rotating interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The CH HSS is expected to commence on day 3. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit is expected to end on day 1.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton50%30%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Sep 142
  Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep  140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        03 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  014/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Sep  021/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  014/015-010/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%30%
Major-severe storm10%20%25%

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