Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 July 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 1519 (S15W18), 1520 (S17E06) and 1521 (S22W07) all produced C-class flares during the period. The largest event was a C9/1n at 11/0831Z from Region 1521. Region 1520 indicated consolidation and rotation in its trailer spots while developing additional sheer. The region remained a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. During the past 24 hours, Region 1521 elongated along its E/W axis and developed a gamma configuration in its trailer spots. The region is now classified as an E-type beta-gamma group. A 20 degree long filament erupted in the NE quadrant of the disk at about 11/0930Z. The eruption occurred along a channel centered near N22E22. Limited LASCO imagery hinted at a possible CME that lifted off the NNE limb likely associated with the filament eruption. Further analysis of this CME is ongoing.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class events for the next three days (12 - 14 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with isolated high latitude minor to major storm intervals from 11/0600 - 1200Z. ACE solar data indicated wind velocities remained steady at about 500 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (12 - 14 July).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
Class M80%80%80%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jul 162
  Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul  160/160/155
  90 Day Mean        11 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  015/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jul  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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