Viewing archive of Friday, 15 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 1504
(S16W12) produced several C-class flares, the largest of which was a
C3/Sf flare at 1324Z. Although the magnetic configuration has
simplified from a delta to a beta-gamma, the area of the region has
increased. The remaining regions were relatively stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class flares are likely for the next three
days (16 June-18 June), primarily from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet until late on day 1 (16 June) to early
on day 2 (17 June). Activity is then expected to increase to active
levels with a chance for minor storm levels due to the combined
effects from both the 13 and 14 June CMEs. On day 3 (18 June)
conditions are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 145 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 008/015-017/022-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 50% | 30% |
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