Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 June 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 09 2245 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2012 :::::::::Corrected Copy:::::::::::

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1499 (N16W31) was the most active region producing two M-class x-ray events. The first event was an impulsive M1 flare at 09/1132Z and the second was also an impulsive M1/Sf event which occurred at 09/1645Z. Region 1499 also produced several C1 events at 09/0308Z, 1032Z, and 1527Z. Region 1499 was classified as a Cao type group with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. New Region 1504 (S18E67) was numbered today and classified as a Cao type group with beta magnetic characteristics. New Region 1505(S09E63) was also numbered today and classified as a Axx type group with alpha magnetic characteristics. There were no earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain low with an increasing chance for occasional M-class activity for the next three days (10-12 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. A weak disturbance was observed on both ground and GOES magnetometers at 09/1841Z leading to the single unsettled period of the day. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft continued to decline and ended the period near 440 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magentic field remained mostly neutral or positive. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10-12 June) with the anticiapted glancing blows from CMEs on 06 June and 08 June and the arrival on 11 June of a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
Class M45%50%55%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jun 128
  Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        09 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jun  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  007/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm30%30%30%

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