Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Previously active Region 1476
(N10W56) continued to decay over the past 24 hours, while producing
a few nominal C-class flares. New Region 1485 (S19E65) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next 3 days (16-18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet over the next 3 days (16-18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 129 Predicted 16 May-18 May 125/125/122 90 Day Mean 15 May 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 008/008-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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