Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 May 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Previously active Region 1476 (N10W56) continued to decay over the past 24 hours, while producing a few nominal C-class flares. New Region 1485 (S19E65) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days (16-18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet over the next 3 days (16-18 May).
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
Class M 15%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 May 129
  Predicted    16 May-18 May  125/125/122
  90 Day Mean        15 May 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 May  006/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  008/008-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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