Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1476 (N10E22) continues to be the most complex and
most active spot region on the visible disk. It produced an M4/1n
x-ray flare at 09/1232Z, and an M1/1b x-ray flare at 09/1408Z. This
spot region continues to grow in area, reaching 1050 Millionths and
remains a Fkc/beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (10-12 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a slight chance for minor
storming on day one (10 May) due to increased wind speeds associated
with the Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS). Days two and
three (11-12 May) are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels as
the effects of the CH HSS begin to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 127 Predicted 10 May-12 May 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 09 May 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 017/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 015/022-013/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 10% |
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