Viewing archive of Monday, 16 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
An M1 flare was observed from a region around the east limb at
16/1745Z. Region 1459 (S15E56) continued to grow and is now
considered an Fhi-beta type group. A filament erupted at
approximately 16/1300Z near S43E33. The associated CME is not
expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(17-19 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (17-19 April).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 108 Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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