Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1440 (S25W38) produced
todays only C-class flare at 22/1750Z. This region appears to be
decaying and currently shows a beta-gamma configuration. Three new
sunspot groups were numbered today: Region 1441 (S27W56), Region
1442 (N13E49) and Region 1443 (N16E62). All of these regions were
small, quiet, and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 1440.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period
from 22/1800Z to 22/2100Z. Solar wind data appeared to indicate a
solar sector boundary crossing at about 22/1930Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 March).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 102 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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