Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 March 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1440 (S25W38) produced todays only C-class flare at 22/1750Z. This region appears to be decaying and currently shows a beta-gamma configuration. Three new sunspot groups were numbered today: Region 1441 (S27W56), Region 1442 (N13E49) and Region 1443 (N16E62). All of these regions were small, quiet, and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 1440.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period from 22/1800Z to 22/2100Z. Solar wind data appeared to indicate a solar sector boundary crossing at about 22/1930Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 March).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Mar 102
  Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        22 Mar 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Mar  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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