Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There was one C-class
flare duing the past 24 hours, a C3/1f from Region 1423 (N17W21) at
01/1526Z. New Region 1427 (N15W01) was numbered today. A CME was
observed at 29/1824Z (using LASCO C2) from the north polar region of
the sun, however it is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active with isolated storm
periods at high latitudes. The elevated activity appears to be
related to a solar sector boundary crossing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first and second days
(02-03 Mar) due to a small yet well positioned coronal hole. A
return to quiet levels is expected on the third day (04 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 103 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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