Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (15-17 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (15-17 February).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 107 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 105/105/110 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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