Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 January 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1402 (N29W72) produced several C-class events, the largest a C7 flare at 26/0149Z. The region also produced a long duration C6 flare at 26/0542Z. An associated partial-halo CME was first visible in C2 LASCO imagery at 26/0436Z (plane-of-sky speed approx 1044 km/s). The CME appears to be directed well north of the ecliptic plane and towards the STEREO A spacecraft. It is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event on day one (27 January). Activity is expected to decrease to low levels on days two and three (28-29 January) after Region 1402 rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV Proton event that began at 23/0530Z and reached a maximum value of 6310 pfu at 24/1530Z, is still in progress.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (27-28 January) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (29 January) as effects from the CH HSS subside. The greater than 10 MeV Proton event is expected to decrease below the 10 pfu threshold early on day one (27 January).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
Class M10%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton50%01%01%
PCAFYellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jan 128
  Predicted   27 Jan-29 Jan  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        26 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan  017/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jan  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan  007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm15%15%01%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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