Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1402 (N29W72) produced
several C-class events, the largest a C7 flare at 26/0149Z. The
region also produced a long duration C6 flare at 26/0542Z. An
associated partial-halo CME was first visible in C2 LASCO imagery at
26/0436Z (plane-of-sky speed approx 1044 km/s). The CME appears to
be directed well north of the ecliptic plane and towards the STEREO
A spacecraft. It is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event on day one (27
January). Activity is expected to decrease to low levels on days two
and three (28-29 January) after Region 1402 rotates around the west
limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 10 MeV Proton event that began at 23/0530Z and reached a
maximum value of 6310 pfu at 24/1530Z, is still in progress.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (27-28
January) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (29 January) as
effects from the CH HSS subside. The greater than 10 MeV Proton
event is expected to decrease below the 10 pfu threshold early on
day one (27 January).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 50% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 128 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 017/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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