Viewing archive of Friday, 30 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class flares were
observed from Region 1389 (S22E44), an M2/Sf at 29/2151Z and a M1/Sn
at 30/0309Z. The region ended the period as an Ekc type group with
beta magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions were stable
and magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels, particularly from Region 1389,
for the next three days (31 December - 02 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft was near 350 km/s. Bz at ACE was briefly southward
to -8 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for day one (31 December),
increasing to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active
conditions on days two and three (01-02 January). The increase in
activity is expected with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 141 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 005/005-008/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
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