Viewing archive of Friday, 9 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1374 (S17E54) produced
a C3 flare at 09/1320Z. Region 1374 had separation occurring within
the main spot. Growth was noted in Regions 1375 (N09E52) and 1372
(N08E03).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated active period
at high latitudes occurring during the 09/1200-1500Z period. Solar
wind speed has remained relatively constant between 300 to 330 km/s
while the total magnetic field has increased from 3 nT to 8 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on Day 1 (10 December). Activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a slight
chance for active periods on Day 2 (11 December) due to effects from
a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). A return to mostly quiet
conditions is expected on day 3 (12 December).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 144 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 13% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 03% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 13% | 15% | 13% |
| Major-severe storm | 08% | 05% | 08% |
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