Viewing archive of Friday, 11 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1344 (S18W45) was the most active sunspot group with occasional C-class flares, including a long-duration C4/Sf at 11/0705Z associated with a partial-halo CME. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 825 km/s, based on SOHO/LASCO C2 images, and appeared to have a slight Earthward component. Region 1344 showed gradual intermediate and trailer spot development during the period. Region 1339 (N17W48) produced a single C-class flare during the period and appeared to be in a state of slow decay with gradual loss of intermediate spots and penumbra. Region 1339 was classified as an Ekc and retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (12 - 14 November) with a chance for an M-class flare from Region 1339.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (12 November) due to a CME arrival associated with a halo-CME observed on 09 November. Field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels on day 2 (13 November) as CME effects gradually subside. A further decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 3 (14 November) with weak effects possible from the partial-halo CME observed today.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
Class M40%40%30%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Nov 174
  Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  170/170/165
  90 Day Mean        11 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Nov  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  020/020-015/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

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