Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1339 (N20E20)
produced two M-class flares during the period: an M1/Sf at 06/0103Z
and an M1/Sn at 06/0635Z associated with a weak Type II radio sweep.
No significant change was noted in Region 1393 as it remained a
large (1230 millionths), magnetically complex Fkc group with a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1338 (S14E02)
produced two C-class flares and showed minor spot growth in its
trailer portion. Newly numbered Region 1343 (N29E76) rotated into
view as an Hsx-type group. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (07 - 09 November) with a slight chance
for high activity (M5 or higher) from Region 1339. There will also
be a slight chance for a proton flare from Region 1339 during the
period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The proton flux
enhancement that began on 04 November continued to gradually
decrease, but was still slightly above background levels at the
close of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during the period (07 - 09 November).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 177 Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 175/175/175 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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