Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 November 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1339 (N20E20) produced two M-class flares during the period: an M1/Sf at 06/0103Z and an M1/Sn at 06/0635Z associated with a weak Type II radio sweep. No significant change was noted in Region 1393 as it remained a large (1230 millionths), magnetically complex Fkc group with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1338 (S14E02) produced two C-class flares and showed minor spot growth in its trailer portion. Newly numbered Region 1343 (N29E76) rotated into view as an Hsx-type group. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the period (07 - 09 November) with a slight chance for high activity (M5 or higher) from Region 1339. There will also be a slight chance for a proton flare from Region 1339 during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The proton flux enhancement that began on 04 November continued to gradually decrease, but was still slightly above background levels at the close of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during the period (07 - 09 November).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
Class M70%70%70%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Nov 177
  Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov  175/175/175
  90 Day Mean        06 Nov 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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