Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were five, low level
C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was a
C3 at 1452Z from Region 1324 (N12W85). Two of the C-flares appeared
to originate from a region on the east limb at about 10 degrees
North. Region 1330 (N07W22) continues to be the largest group on the
disk at this time but was quiet and stable. A slow CME was observed
off the northeast limb late in the period but STEREO observations
indicated that this was a back-sided event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the next two days (30-31 October). The increase is
expected due to a high speed stream from a coronal hole. Quiet
levels are expected to prevail on the third day (01 November).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 123 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 010/010-010/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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