Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. There are 8 numbered regions on
the disk producing weak C-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares expected and a chance for M-class flares for the
next 3 days (16-18 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with the exception of an
isolated period of unsettled conditions 15/00-03Z, due to increased
solar wind speeds combined with a period of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active days 1-2 (16-17 October) due to
CH HSS effects. Conditions are forecast to be mostly quiet on day 3
(18 October) as solar wind speeds wane.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 138 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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