Viewing archive of Monday, 5 September 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Sep 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1286 (N20W86)
produced M1 x-ray flares at 05/0428Z and 05/0758Z as it approached
the west limb. Region 1286 also produced a long-duration C7 x-ray
flare at 05/0037Z associated with a non-Earth-directed CME. An
eruption occurred along a filament channel in the northeast quadrant
at around 05/0230Z and was associated with a slow,
non-Earth-directed CME. Region 1283 (N14W04) showed minor changes
during the period and was classified as an Eai group with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1288 was numbered as a
small Bxo group with a simple beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (06 - 08 September). There will be a chance for
an M-class flare from Region 1286 on 06 September. There will be a
slight chance for an M-class flare during 07 - 08 September from
Region 1283.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (06 - 08
September).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 119 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 115/110/105 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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